Thursday, April 28, 2011

Budget Deficit down 80%

This is significant. Past performance had us believing that the deficit was an unkillable beast. We rejoiced at improvements of 10% to 20%. While some PHP10.0 billion is substantial it's a far cry from 80 billion pesos. Lets check that again: 80 is greater than 10.

Considering the performance, I wonder how the P-Noy team managed when other administrations did not. Some point to the increase in revenues from the BIR, but that's about 1 billion in improvement leaving 79 billion to account for. Customs seems to account for a similar amount. Could it have been the zero based budget policy?

Simply put, zero based budgeting means all budget items get reviewed not just incremental increases. Programs that did not deliver had their funding cut. Check the Wikipedia definition of zero based budgeting. It may seem minor but I suspect it has a psychological impact. Program proponents must show results thus encouraging them to become efficient or at least effective. Corruption has a diminished impact. Even the corrupt have a  reason to serve well - if they don't they lose their kickbacks. 

It would be useful if we could see where the deficit improvements came from. Then we can concentrate on these targets. Citing another efficiency theory, the Pareto Principle, most results come from only a fraction of our activities. This is sometimes called the 80/20 Principle. Studying the recent results could be a gold mine of efficiency information. It may be one of the few chances we'll get in a long while.

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